Vol. 29 No. 2 (2026): Continuous

Articles

• Open Access Article Economics

  15 Pages Download PDF: Alternating Heads of State And Structural Transformation In Sub-Saharan Africa: A Panel VAR Analysis

  Alternating Heads of State And Structural Transformation In Sub-Saharan Africa: A Panel VAR Analysis

  Tourere Zenabou, Nzepang Fabrice

  https://doi.org/10.36923/ie-frontiers.v29i2.436

  This study examines the dynamic interaction between head-of-state alternation and structural transformation in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), an issue that has received limited attention compared with the established literature on political alternation and economic growth. Using data from Limi Kouotou and Epo (2019), the Africa Sector Database, and World Development Indicators for 17 SSA countries over 1970–2015, the study estimates a panel vector autoregression (pVAR) model. The study examines structural transformation through two components: structural change and intra-industry productivity. The results show that innovations in head-of-state alternation are more strongly associated with structural change than with intra-industry productivity. The impulse-response analysis further indicates that head-of-state alternation responds positively to structural-change shocks and negatively to intra-industry-productivity shocks. Forecast-error variance decomposition shows that innovations in head-of-state alternation explain 25.5% of the variance in structural change and 13.4% of the variance in intra-industry productivity, while FDI accounts for 51.2% of the forecast-error variance in head-of-state alternation. The study contributes to the literature by moving beyond the conventional growth–politics relationship and demonstrating the dynamic association between political alternation and the components of structural transformation in SSA.

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