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• Open Access Article Economics

  10 Pages Download PDF: An Asymmetrical Relationship Between Oil Price Fluctuations And Geopolitical Tensions Between China And The United States

  An Asymmetrical Relationship Between Oil Price Fluctuations And Geopolitical Tensions Between China And The United States

  Abdelkader Mohamed Sghaier Derbali

  2026-02-24 https://doi.org/10.36923/ie-frontiers.v29i1.408

  Oil remains a strategic asset at the heart of contemporary geopolitical rivalries. China’s rise to become the world’s largest importer and the United States’ transformation into a major producer and exporter have profoundly altered the energy balance of power, reinforcing the interdependence between oil markets and bilateral geopolitical tensions. This article examines the existence and nature of an asymmetric relationship between oil price fluctuations and geopolitical tensions between China and the United States, distinguishing the effects of price increases and decreases and their dependence on risk regimes. The analysis is based on monthly data covering 2000–2024 and employs a nonlinear econometric approach that combines an NARDL model for asymmetric cointegration, a Quantile VAR (QVAR) model to capture conditional effects by risk level, and an EGARCH model to analyze the asymmetric transmission of geopolitical uncertainty to oil volatility. The results show that rising oil prices significantly intensify Sino-American geopolitical tensions, while falling prices have a weaker and less persistent effect. This asymmetry is particularly pronounced during periods of high international instability. Furthermore, geopolitical tensions significantly increase oil price volatility, with a leverage effect indicating that negative geopolitical shocks have a disproportionate impact on energy markets. These results suggest that the asymmetry in the oil-geopolitical transmission reflects differentiated energy vulnerabilities and distinct strategic behaviors between China and the United States. The study underscores the importance of oil as a vector of asymmetric interdependence and as an amplifier of international tensions, with major implications for energy security policies, financial market stability, and global energy governance.

  pp. 01-10 Abstract views:790 Downloads:685

• Open Access Article Economics

  15 Pages Download PDF: Alternating Heads of State And Structural Transformation In Sub-Saharan Africa: A Panel VAR Analysis

  Alternating Heads of State And Structural Transformation In Sub-Saharan Africa: A Panel VAR Analysis

  Tourere Zenabou, Nzepang Fabrice

  2026-09-30 https://doi.org/10.36923/ie-frontiers.v29i2.436

  This study examines the dynamic interaction between head-of-state alternation and structural transformation in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), an issue that has received limited attention compared with the established literature on political alternation and economic growth. Using data from Limi Kouotou and Epo (2019), the Africa Sector Database, and World Development Indicators for 17 SSA countries over 1970–2015, the study estimates a panel vector autoregression (pVAR) model. The study examines structural transformation through two components: structural change and intra-industry productivity. The results show that innovations in head-of-state alternation are more strongly associated with structural change than with intra-industry productivity. The impulse-response analysis further indicates that head-of-state alternation responds positively to structural-change shocks and negatively to intra-industry-productivity shocks. Forecast-error variance decomposition shows that innovations in head-of-state alternation explain 25.5% of the variance in structural change and 13.4% of the variance in intra-industry productivity, while FDI accounts for 51.2% of the forecast-error variance in head-of-state alternation. The study contributes to the literature by moving beyond the conventional growth–politics relationship and demonstrating the dynamic association between political alternation and the components of structural transformation in SSA.

  pp. 1-15 Abstract views:118 Downloads:55

• Open Access Article Economics

  16 Pages Download PDF: When Green Accounting Fails to Drive Green Energy: Institutional Quality and China’s Renewable Energy Transition

  When Green Accounting Fails to Drive Green Energy: Institutional Quality and China’s Renewable Energy Transition

  Saqib Munir, Mushab Rashid, Abdul Ghaffar

  2026-05-17 https://doi.org/10.36923/ie-frontiers.v29i1.426

  This study examines how institutional quality, government R&D expenditure, and SEEA-aligned environmental asset indicators are associated with renewable energy adoption in China from 1999 to 2023. It addresses the puzzle that environmental accounting signals and innovation investment do not automatically translate into renewable energy use. Annual data from the World Development Indicators and Worldwide Governance Indicators were analyzed using a hybrid empirical strategy. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag approach was applied to estimate short-run and long-run relationships, while Double Machine Learning, Random Forest, Gradient Boosting, and SHAP interpretability were used as supplementary tools for robustness and predictive importance. Given the limited sample size, machine-learning results are interpreted as orthogonalized associations and as predictive evidence rather than as definitive causal effects. ARDL results show that regulatory quality has a positive and statistically significant long-run association with renewable energy adoption. In contrast, government R&D expenditure and adjusted net savings show negative associations, suggesting that innovation spending and fiscal capacity may not support renewable energy adoption unless directed toward deployment and energy-system substitution. Energy resource depletion is statistically insignificant, while natural resource rents show a weak positive long-run association. Machine-learning results identify government R&D expenditure as the strongest predictor, although its direction remains negative. The findings indicate that China’s renewable energy transition depends less on fiscal or technological inputs alone and more on the institutional capacity to convert these inputs into adoption outcomes. The study implies that SEEA-based indicators should be integrated with regulatory mechanisms, deployment-oriented innovation policy, and outcome-based evaluation of energy transition.

  pp. 25-40 Abstract views:516 Downloads:170