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• Open Access Article Economics

  10 Pages Download PDF: An Asymmetrical Relationship Between Oil Price Fluctuations And Geopolitical Tensions Between China And The United States

  An Asymmetrical Relationship Between Oil Price Fluctuations And Geopolitical Tensions Between China And The United States

  Abdelkader Mohamed Sghaier Derbali

  2026-02-24 https://doi.org/10.36923/ie-frontiers.v29i1.408

  Oil remains a strategic asset at the heart of contemporary geopolitical rivalries. China’s rise to become the world’s largest importer and the United States’ transformation into a major producer and exporter have profoundly altered the energy balance of power, reinforcing the interdependence between oil markets and bilateral geopolitical tensions. This article examines the existence and nature of an asymmetric relationship between oil price fluctuations and geopolitical tensions between China and the United States, distinguishing the effects of price increases and decreases and their dependence on risk regimes. The analysis is based on monthly data covering 2000–2024 and employs a nonlinear econometric approach that combines an NARDL model for asymmetric cointegration, a Quantile VAR (QVAR) model to capture conditional effects by risk level, and an EGARCH model to analyze the asymmetric transmission of geopolitical uncertainty to oil volatility. The results show that rising oil prices significantly intensify Sino-American geopolitical tensions, while falling prices have a weaker and less persistent effect. This asymmetry is particularly pronounced during periods of high international instability. Furthermore, geopolitical tensions significantly increase oil price volatility, with a leverage effect indicating that negative geopolitical shocks have a disproportionate impact on energy markets. These results suggest that the asymmetry in the oil-geopolitical transmission reflects differentiated energy vulnerabilities and distinct strategic behaviors between China and the United States. The study underscores the importance of oil as a vector of asymmetric interdependence and as an amplifier of international tensions, with major implications for energy security policies, financial market stability, and global energy governance.

  pp. 01-10 Abstract views:790 Downloads:685

• Open Access Article Economics

  13 Pages Download PDF: Social Capital and Saving Behavior in Ethiopia: Evidence from the Amhara National Regional State

  Social Capital and Saving Behavior in Ethiopia: Evidence from the Amhara National Regional State

  Fentahun Admassu Yayeh, Wondaferahu Mulugeta Demissie

  2024-10-04 https://doi.org/10.36923/iefrontiers.v28i1.254

  The paper analyzes the impact of social capital on the saving behavior of members of financial cooperatives in the Amhara Regional State, Ethiopia. Explanatory and mixed research methods were employed using a cross-sectional study of 348 stratified and randomly selected financial cooperative members. Primary data was collected through structured questionnaires, focus group discussions, and personal interviews. The data was further analyzed using Probit regression and multiple linear regression models. Three types of social capital dimensions:cognitive, relational, and structuralwere operationalized and measured in terms of members' understanding of shared mission and goals, cooperation, and trust. The results revealed strong evidence that the dimensions of social capital affect the amount of savings and the decision to save voluntarily in a way that yields a return. Our findings suggest that structural and relational social capital, particularly through formal networks, effectively increase both the amount saved and the decision to save. However, the lack of cognitive social capital does not encourage saving behavior. Therefore, it is essential to strengthen the dimensions of trustworthiness, cooperation, and understanding of the shared mission and goals within financial cooperatives. This can be achieved through efficient service delivery, financial workshops, and training programs to guide members toward suitable saving instruments

  pp. 01-13 Abstract views:767 Downloads:458

• Open Access Article Economics Macroeconomics

  13 Pages Download PDF: Foreign Direct Investment, Capital Flows, and Sectoral Growth in Nigeria: A Comparative Analysis of Agriculture and Manufacturing

  Foreign Direct Investment, Capital Flows, and Sectoral Growth in Nigeria: A Comparative Analysis of Agriculture and Manufacturing

  Anthony Orji, Jovita Nneka Uwakwe, Onyinye Imelda Anthony-Orji, Jonathan Emenike Ogbuabor, Juliana Ngozi Obiorah

  2025-09-23 https://doi.org/10.36923/ie-frontiers.v28i2.404

  The nexus between the agricultural sector, manufacturing sector, and FDI has been a topic of debate over the years. While the fundamental role of FDI in the growth of the overall economy has been widely recognized, findings of existing literature have remained unclear and inconclusive on how the impact of FDI varies across these distinct sectors, especially within the context of developing countries like Nigeria. This study aims to provide a comprehensive comparative analysis of the impact of FDI and other capital inflows on Nigeria’s agricultural and manufacturing sectors between 1980 and 2021. Using annual time-series data from the World Bank’s World Development Indicators (WDI) and the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), the study employs the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) modelling approach. Four sector-specific ARDL models were specified, each subjected to extensive diagnostic and robustness checks to ensure the reliability of the estimates. The findings reveal a contrasting effect: while FDI exerts no statistically significant influence on manufacturing output, it has a strong and transformative impact on agricultural performance. In addition, other capital inflows, including official development assistance, development finance, and remittances, were found to significantly influence both sectors. The study concludes that FDI is not a universal driver of growth, and its effectiveness depends on sectoral characteristics, investment type, and policy environment. It contributes to the literature by offering one of the first sector-specific comparative analyses of capital flows in Nigeria, providing evidence to guide policies aimed at shifting the economy from consumption-driven patterns toward sustainable, production-oriented growth.

  pp. 1-13 Abstract views:806 Downloads:860

• Open Access Article Economics Digital Economy

  16 Pages Download PDF: From Peg to Float: Economic and Political Implications of the Ethiopian Birr Flotation

  From Peg to Float: Economic and Political Implications of the Ethiopian Birr Flotation

  Fentahun Admassu Yayeh

  2025-04-16 https://doi.org/10.36923/iefrontiers.v28i1.286

  The adoption of a floating exchange rate system constitutes a pivotal economic policy decision that both reflects and influences a nation’s broader political economy. The flotation of the Ethiopian Birr (ETB) marks a substantial shift in Ethiopia’s monetary policy framework, carrying significant implications for the country's macroeconomic stability and development trajectory. This paper investigates the rationale behind the policy shift, its anticipated economic impacts, and potential future pathways for Ethiopia. Through a systematic review of the literature and comparative analysis of case studies from other countries, the study provides a comprehensive evaluation of the benefits, risks, and strategic considerations associated with the move to a floating exchange rate. While the reform offers promising prospects for greater economic autonomy, enhanced trade competitiveness, and market-driven growth, it also introduces considerable challenges, including inflationary pressures, socioeconomic inequality, and political uncertainty. To fully leverage the potential of this transition, Ethiopia must prioritize sound policy management, institutional strengthening, and structural economic reforms. These measures are critical to mitigating the inherent risks of exchange rate liberalization and to ensuring that the country achieves long-term macroeconomic stability, inclusive growth, and sustained structural transformation.

  pp. 46-61 Abstract views:1264 Downloads:716

• Open Access Article Economics

  15 Pages Download PDF: Alternating Heads of State And Structural Transformation In Sub-Saharan Africa: A Panel VAR Analysis

  Alternating Heads of State And Structural Transformation In Sub-Saharan Africa: A Panel VAR Analysis

  Tourere Zenabou, Nzepang Fabrice

  2026-09-30 https://doi.org/10.36923/ie-frontiers.v29i2.436

  This study examines the dynamic interaction between head-of-state alternation and structural transformation in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), an issue that has received limited attention compared with the established literature on political alternation and economic growth. Using data from Limi Kouotou and Epo (2019), the Africa Sector Database, and World Development Indicators for 17 SSA countries over 1970–2015, the study estimates a panel vector autoregression (pVAR) model. The study examines structural transformation through two components: structural change and intra-industry productivity. The results show that innovations in head-of-state alternation are more strongly associated with structural change than with intra-industry productivity. The impulse-response analysis further indicates that head-of-state alternation responds positively to structural-change shocks and negatively to intra-industry-productivity shocks. Forecast-error variance decomposition shows that innovations in head-of-state alternation explain 25.5% of the variance in structural change and 13.4% of the variance in intra-industry productivity, while FDI accounts for 51.2% of the forecast-error variance in head-of-state alternation. The study contributes to the literature by moving beyond the conventional growth–politics relationship and demonstrating the dynamic association between political alternation and the components of structural transformation in SSA.

  pp. 1-15 Abstract views:118 Downloads:55

• Open Access Article Economics

  17 Pages Download PDF: Exploring How Income Inequality, Education, and Policy Shape Energy Access Disparities in Southeast Asia

  Exploring How Income Inequality, Education, and Policy Shape Energy Access Disparities in Southeast Asia

  Syeda Anam Hassan, Inayatul Haq, Alamzeb Aamir, Ihtisham ul Haq, Khalid Zaman

  2025-12-18 https://doi.org/10.36923/ie-frontiers.v28i2.403

  The pursuance of Sustainable Development Goal 7, Affordable and Clean Energy, takes center stage in this research in the vibrant geography of Southeast Asia. This investigation centers on the social and economic ramifications of renewable energy policy, examining the various factors that influence energy fairness and justice. The study aims to determine how financial disparity, community participation, education, policy support, and geographical constraints affected energy access discrepancies in a panel of nine selected Southeast Asian countries from 2000 to 2023. The study employed a panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model and robust least squares regression for estimation. Income inequality negatively and significantly affects energy access disparity (EAD) in the panel ARDL model. Community involvement and education improve energy accessibility. Education raises awareness of sustainable energy practices and technology, which increases energy-efficient solution adoption. Community involvement affects inclusive energy access and environmental sustainability policies, and public opinion. Additionally, geographical obstacles and public support are correlated positively, indicating that practical policy actions and investments can increase energy availability. Centralized infrastructure, technology, and egalitarian energy solutions may overcome geographical obstacles. Finally, policy support has an "inverted U-shaped" pattern, suggesting that it may promote socioeconomic growth and reduce energy access inequities. The study provides deep insights that can influence targeted policy choices and promote a sustainable and inclusive energy future for Southeast Asian countries.

  pp. 14-30 Abstract views:862 Downloads:181