Search

Search Results

3 results found

• Open Access Article Economics

  15 Pages Download PDF: Alternating Heads of State And Structural Transformation In Sub-Saharan Africa: A Panel VAR Analysis

  Alternating Heads of State And Structural Transformation In Sub-Saharan Africa: A Panel VAR Analysis

  Tourere Zenabou, Nzepang Fabrice

  2026-09-30 https://doi.org/10.36923/ie-frontiers.v29i2.436

  This study examines the dynamic interaction between head-of-state alternation and structural transformation in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), an issue that has received limited attention compared with the established literature on political alternation and economic growth. Using data from Limi Kouotou and Epo (2019), the Africa Sector Database, and World Development Indicators for 17 SSA countries over 1970–2015, the study estimates a panel vector autoregression (pVAR) model. The study examines structural transformation through two components: structural change and intra-industry productivity. The results show that innovations in head-of-state alternation are more strongly associated with structural change than with intra-industry productivity. The impulse-response analysis further indicates that head-of-state alternation responds positively to structural-change shocks and negatively to intra-industry-productivity shocks. Forecast-error variance decomposition shows that innovations in head-of-state alternation explain 25.5% of the variance in structural change and 13.4% of the variance in intra-industry productivity, while FDI accounts for 51.2% of the forecast-error variance in head-of-state alternation. The study contributes to the literature by moving beyond the conventional growth–politics relationship and demonstrating the dynamic association between political alternation and the components of structural transformation in SSA.

  pp. 1-15 Abstract views:118 Downloads:55

• Open Access Article Economics

  10 Pages Download PDF: An Asymmetrical Relationship Between Oil Price Fluctuations And Geopolitical Tensions Between China And The United States

  An Asymmetrical Relationship Between Oil Price Fluctuations And Geopolitical Tensions Between China And The United States

  Abdelkader Mohamed Sghaier Derbali

  2026-02-24 https://doi.org/10.36923/ie-frontiers.v29i1.408

  Oil remains a strategic asset at the heart of contemporary geopolitical rivalries. China’s rise to become the world’s largest importer and the United States’ transformation into a major producer and exporter have profoundly altered the energy balance of power, reinforcing the interdependence between oil markets and bilateral geopolitical tensions. This article examines the existence and nature of an asymmetric relationship between oil price fluctuations and geopolitical tensions between China and the United States, distinguishing the effects of price increases and decreases and their dependence on risk regimes. The analysis is based on monthly data covering 2000–2024 and employs a nonlinear econometric approach that combines an NARDL model for asymmetric cointegration, a Quantile VAR (QVAR) model to capture conditional effects by risk level, and an EGARCH model to analyze the asymmetric transmission of geopolitical uncertainty to oil volatility. The results show that rising oil prices significantly intensify Sino-American geopolitical tensions, while falling prices have a weaker and less persistent effect. This asymmetry is particularly pronounced during periods of high international instability. Furthermore, geopolitical tensions significantly increase oil price volatility, with a leverage effect indicating that negative geopolitical shocks have a disproportionate impact on energy markets. These results suggest that the asymmetry in the oil-geopolitical transmission reflects differentiated energy vulnerabilities and distinct strategic behaviors between China and the United States. The study underscores the importance of oil as a vector of asymmetric interdependence and as an amplifier of international tensions, with major implications for energy security policies, financial market stability, and global energy governance.

  pp. 01-10 Abstract views:790 Downloads:685

• Open Access Article Economics Macroeconomics

  10 Pages Download PDF: Tourism, Migration, And Productive Capacity Growth In Sub-Saharan Africa

  Tourism, Migration, And Productive Capacity Growth In Sub-Saharan Africa

  Anthony Orji, Elis Moses Onoh, Onyinye Imelda Anthony-Orji, Jonathan Emenike Ogbuabor, Oluchi Okoro, Joseph Fanen Akpesue

  2025-12-19 https://doi.org/10.36923/ie-frontiers.v28i2.406

  Productive capacity has emerged as a critical indicator of long-term economic development, particularly for regions undergoing rapid structural transformation, such as Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Despite increasing global interest, the key drivers of productive capacity in SSA remain insufficiently explored, especially within the context of tourism and migration. Existing studies predominantly rely on GDP-based growth models and often examine tourism and migration separately, overlooking their combined influence on structural development. Moreover, the role of institutional quality in shaping productive capacity is under-investigated. This study examines how international tourism and migration affect productive capacity growth in SSA, while also considering the contributions of urbanization, trade openness, and institutional quality. Using panel data from 38 SSA countries between 2011 and 2021, the analysis employs a dynamic System Generalized Method of Moments (System GMM) estimator to address endogeneity, unobserved heterogeneity, and simultaneity among variables. The results indicate that international tourism and migration exert positive and statistically significant effects on productive capacity. Institutional quality emerges as the most influential driver, followed by urbanization and trade openness. These findings underscore the importance of structural and governance-related factors in enhancing the region’s productive capacity. Tourism and migration contribute meaningfully to productive capacity growth; however, their impact is substantially conditioned by the quality of governance and structural enablers. Policymakers should adopt sustainable tourism strategies, strengthen security and infrastructure, develop migration-friendly frameworks, enhance human capital, and prioritize institutional reforms to maximize long-term productive capacity in SSA.

  pp. 31-40 Abstract views:738 Downloads:244